We are proud to announce that we just published a timely monograph by William Brooks on Futenma issue, which has yet to be settled for indeed fourteen years, based on his rich experience in the American Embassy in Tokyo.
Director, Kent Calder wrote, "It gives the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies great pleasure to publish this monograph as the latest contribution to our Asia-Pacific Policy Papers monograph collection. The series aims to bridge the delicate divide between policy and scholarship—to present timely issues of public interest and policy importance, in a reflective, analytical fashion that realistically contributes to their resolution. Just as we have dealt in the past with issues of Japanese economic reform, North Korean nuclear policy, and Chinese energy security, so here do we present timely research on the most controversial issue facing U.S.-Japan relations today—the relocation of the Futenma Marine Corps Air Station.
In recent months there has been a blizzard of journalistic commentary on Futenma—hundreds of op ed pieces and television specials on the issue, replete with short-term forecasts on how it may affect the incumbent Japanese administration or the U.S.-Japan alliance. Yet there has been remarkably little serious research—and no at-length historical studies covering the evolution of the controversy from its origins—on just how we got to where we are today. This analytical gap is not only unfortunate from a scholarly standpoint; it also blinds us to important political dynamics, and policy options, that have been relevant in the past, and may well shape the future.
We could not ask for a more appropriate analytical viewpoint on such a hybrid policy-research question than that of Bill Brooks, a valued colleague here at SAIS, with a Columbia Ph.D., with whom I worked closely at US Embassy Tokyo a decade ago. Bill served for fifteen years, until 2009, as head of the Office of Translation and Media Analysis at the Embassy, monitoring and analyzing political-economic developments in Japan, and Japanese reactions to them, for U.S. government officials in both Tokyo and Washington. His research and advice were always well respected, and his 2 appreciation of subtle developments within Japan, as an American fully fluent in Japanese language and culture, were unequalled. Now, for the first time, we get his public view of fateful events that Dr. Brooks witnessed directly and at close hand as a public servant, although the analysis itself draws only—Bill is careful to add—on openly available sources.
It is for the reader to decide how he or she views this unique analysis, on an issue fraught with public controversy. It needs to be read completely, and a brief summary cannot do it justice. That said, there are recurring themes it is useful to stress from the outset:
(1) The Lessons of History
The Futenma controversy has been boiling on for over fifteen years, but the basic options—relocation to the vicinity of Henoko; choices among mobile basing, reclamation, land-based options inside Camp Schwab, and the so-called QIP method—remain remarkably constant. So do many of the political responses to each of the options.
(2) The Centrality of Politics
Time and again, political decisions—at the national level and at the prefectural and local levels within Okinawa— have complicated resolution of what seemed originally to be a promising, simple, and creative resolution to the pressing imperative of closing an aging military facility in a crowded urban area, and moving it to a less threatening environment. Interested parties transformed the initial, relatively simple option of a heliport at Henoko, inside Camp Schwab, into a variety of complex permutations. New administrations felt the need to impose their own resolutions, even when doing so opened Pandora’s boxes. And within Okinawa itself, the preferred option again and again was simply indecision—keeping base issues in play, so as to extract maximum benefit from all parties, without the downside of implementing something distasteful.
(3) The “Mission Creep” Dynamic
The original proposal for Futenma relocation was relatively simple—a land-based heliport inside Camp Schwab. For a variety of reasons, on both the American and the
Japanese sides, the plans that ultimately emerged were, time and time again, much more elaborate. Technological change, and the related introduction of new operating equipment and logistical requirements, was one reason; political and economic pressures had their impact also.
(4) The Importance of Deadlines, Clarity and Leadership
Futenma-related decisionmaking has tended to drift, as the issues are unpleasant and peripheral for many of the decision-makers, unless there is an action-forcing event. The tragic 1995 Okinawa rape case, and the 1996 Clinton- Hashimoto summit, initially played this role, and gave birth to the original agreement. Leadership also helped consolidate the 2006 agreement. The history presented in this monograph thus suggests that leadership, against the deadline of the forthcoming November, 2010 Yokohama APEC summit, when President Barack Obama will visit Japan, will be crucial once again in finally settling this longstanding issue.
This monograph is a good read—remarkably bi-national and bicultural in its range of perspectives, and the data it summons for analysis. It covers an important subject, from a unique perspective, in an unprecedented way. It is eloquent, and sensitive to both the needs of the U.S-Japan alliance and the tragedy of Futenma citizens caught in the middle. I enjoyed it, and I know that future readers will as well."
